Risk-On Positions Undermined by 1M U.S. Jobs Revision: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Omkar Godbole (all times ET unless stated otherwise)

Just 10 days after the U.S. Department of Commerce started posting economic data on a selection of blockchains, the reliability of its data is being questioned by some observers.

On Tuesday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics disclosed a startling figure: The economy created nearly 1 million fewer jobs than reported in the year ended March. The record revision calls into question earlier optimism about the strength of the labor market, casting doubt on all risk-on positions traders took in the past year or so.

Markets interpreted the downward revisions as another sign the Fed will introduce aggressive easing in the coming months. One popular Polymarket trader is betting that the Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points on Sept. 17.

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading above $112,000, having reached lows of around $110,800 during North American trading hours yesterday. European stocks are higher with the S&P 500 futures pointing to a positive open later Wednesday.

Still, caution may be warranted for two reasons: The U.S. producer price and consumer price indices due in the next 24 hours are likely to show that inflation remains elevated and well above the Fed's 2% target. Stagflation concerns may grip the market, weakening the case for aggressive Fed easing, if these data sets blow past expectations.

The second reason is that the liquidity tightening is underway.

"Liquidity is tightening as the Treasury General Account rises and the reverse repo facility drains, pushing reserve balances lower," Mott Capital Management said. "With SOFR climbing, spreads widening, and credit stress showing up, the market may soon face renewed pressure on risk assets."

This is probably the reason why put options tied to bitcoin and ether continue to trade pricier than calls on Deribit, reflecting downside concerns.

In other news, crypto staking platform Kiln said it is exiting its Ethereum validators due to an exploit incident that affected SwissBorg.

Real-world asset protocols continue to grow, with a total value locked of now over $15 billion.

Lastly, a single entity earned $200 million from the MYX airdrop. Talk about windfall gain. Stay alert!

What to Watch

CryptoSept. 10, 9:15 a.m.: Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan V. Gould will talk about digital assets at the CoinDesk: Policy & Regulation Conference in Washington.Sept. 11: REX Shares and Osprey Funds’ Dogecoin ETF shares to start trading on Cboe BZX Exchange under ticker DOJE.MacroSept. 10, 8 a.m.: Brazil August CPI. Inflation rate YoY Est. 5.1%, MoM Est. -0.15%. Sept. 10, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. August PPI YoY Est. 3.3%, MoM Est. 0.3%. Core YoY Est. 3.5%, MoM Est. 0.3%. Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)None scheduled.

Token Events

Governance votes & callsGoldfinch DAO is voting on the Goldfinch Foundation’s annual budget of $400,000 and 200,000 GFI. Voting ends Sept. 10.Compound DAO is voting on extending its COMP yield strategy. Voting ends Sept. 11.Hyperliquid to vote on who issues its USDH stablecoin. Voting takes place Sept. 14.UnlocksSept. 11: Aptos (APT) to unlock 2.2% of its circulating supply worth $50.89 million.Token LaunchesSept. 10: Linea (LINEA) to be listed on Binance Alpha, KuCoin, MEXC, KuCoin, Bitget OKX, CoinW, and others.Sept. 10: Kong (KONG) to be listed on KuCoin.

Conferences

The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation Conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB15 for 15% off your registration.

Day 4 of 4: Future Proof Festival (Huntington Beach, California)Day 2 of 2: Fintech Week London 2025Day 2 of 2: WOW Summit Hong Kong 2025Day 2 of 5: Boston Blockchain Week (Quincy, Massachusetts)Sept. 10: CoinDesk Policy & Regulation Conference (New York)Sept. 10: Future of Finance (New York)

Token Talk

By Oliver Knight

The crypto market has entered "altcoin season" despite sentiment remaining in bearish territory.CoinMarketCap's altcoin season index has ticked up to 59/100, topping August's high of 57 as capital continues to rotate into the more speculative tokens.Market intelligence platform Santiment noted that while prices are moving to the upside, sentiment is becoming more negative."Traders have changed their tunes, swinging more and more negative with expectations of bitcoin falling back below $100K, Ethereum back below $3.5K, and altcoins going through a retrace period," Santiment wrote on X.Altcoins remain unperturbed with mantle (MNT) and pyth (PYTH) leading the way, gaining 15% and 10%, respectively, over the past 24 hours.Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency in terms of market cap, continues to languish around $112,500.Previous altcoin seasons have occurred when bitcoin consolidates as traders rotated capital to speculative assets without the risk of missing out on a major BTC move.Bitcoin has been trading between $107,000 and $113,000 for more than two weeks after failing to break beyond $124,000.

Derivatives Positioning

By Omkar Godbole

BTC's futures open interest (OI) has remained steady over the past 24 hours as traders sit on the sidelines ahead of tomorrow's U.S. CPI release.OI in ETH, SOL and HYPE has increased by over 2%, while XRP, SUI, ADA, and ENA have seen capital outflows.Annualized funding rates for top coins except TRX and XLM are hovering at or above 10%, indicating a bullish bias but nothing out of ordinary. In other words, there are no signs of excess leverage buildup or overheating.On the CME, notional open interest in BTC options has climbed to a record $5.6 billion, while activity in futures remains subdued.On Deribit, BTC and ETH puts out to December expiry continue to trade at a premium to calls, indicating lingering downside concerns.Block flows at OTC desk Paradigm featured a long position in the ether $4,000 put expiring on Sept. 26.

Market Movements

BTC is up 0.68% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $112,296.28 (24hrs: -0.35%)ETH is up 0.47% at $4,325.02 (24hrs: -0.54%)CoinDesk 20 is up 0.87% at 4,128.56 (24hrs: -0.59%)Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 3 bps at 2.87%BTC funding rate is at 0.0103% (11.2785% annualized) on KuCoinDXY is unchanged at 97.76Gold futures are up 0.1% at $3,686.00Silver futures are up 0.65% at $41.61Nikkei 225 closed up 0.87% at 43,837.67Hang Seng closed up 1.01% at 26,200.26FTSE is up 0.25% at 9,265.34Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.25% at 5,382.08DJIA closed on Tuesday up 0.43% at 45,711.34S&P 500 closed up 0.27% at 6,512.61Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.37% at 21,879.49S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.12% at 29,063.01S&P 40 Latin America closed unchanged at 2,800.26U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 1.3 bps at 4.087%E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.14% at 6,530.75E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 23,886.50E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are down 0.26% at 45,640.00

Bitcoin Stats

BTC Dominance: 58.19% (unchanged)Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03848 (-0.38%)Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 992 EH/sHashprice (spot): $52.47Total fees: 4.61 BTC / $517,036CME Futures Open Interest: 134,650 BTCBTC priced in gold: 30.7 ozBTC vs gold market cap: 8.68%

Technical Analysis

Dogecoin printed a Doji candle Tuesday, which indicates lack of willingness among bulls and bears to lead the price action. The emergence of Doji has neutralized the bullish outlook stemming from the descending trendline breakout confirmed Sunday. Tuesday's high of 25 cents is the new level to beat for the bulls.

Crypto Equities

Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Tuesday at $318.78 (+5.49%), +0.56% at $320.57 in pre-marketCircle (CRCL): closed at $117.99 (+4.92%), +1.07% at $119.25Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $26.58 (+9.74%), +1.35% at $26.94Bullish (BLSH): closed at $53.81 (+7.36%), unchanged in pre-marketMARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $15.93 (+4.8%), +0.75% at $16.05Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $15.21 (+13.17%), +0.85% at $15.34Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $14.53 (+4.31%), +2.96% at $14.96CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.67 (+5.45%), +1.03% at $9.77CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $33.13 (+11.59%)Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $26.75 (+1.71%), unchanged in pre-market

Crypto Treasury Companies

Strategy (MSTR): closed at $328.53 (-0.42%), +0.69% at $330.80Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $28.07 (-0.78%)SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $16.69 (+6.51%), +0.48% at $16.77Upexi (UPXI): closed at $5.5 (-2.83%), +3.45% at $5.69Mei Pharma (MEIP): closed at $2.78 (-7.33%), +4.32% at $2.90

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

Daily net flows: $23 millionCumulative net flows: $54.85 billionTotal BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

Daily net flows: $44.2 millionCumulative net flows: $12.69 billionTotal ETH holdings ~6.36 million

Source: Farside Investors

Chart of the Day

The combined market cap of the two largest stablecoins, Tether's USDT and Circle Internet's USDC, continues to set new highs, indicating persistent demand for dollar-linked assets despite Fed rate cut bets. The Fed is expected to cut rates at its Sept. 17 meeting.

While You Were Sleeping

Bitcoin Retakes $112K, SOL hits 7-Month High as Economists Downplay Recession Fears (CoinDesk): The U.S. cut 911,000 jobs from payroll estimates for the year ended March 2025, unsettling markets, but economists said the revision signaled slower labor force growth rather than recession or stagflation.Gold Pushes Toward Record as Traders Wait for Inflation Prints (Bloomberg): Gold rose, fueled by rate-cut expectations, central bank buying, ETF inflows, Israel’s strike in Doha and President Trump urging the EU to join him in new tariffs on India and China.Judge Blocks Trump From Removing Fed Governor Lisa Cook (The Wall Street Journal): Judge Jia Cobb said Cook was likely to prevail since removals must be based only on a Fed governor’s conduct while in office, rather than unproven, pre-appointment allegations.Metaplanet to Raise $1.4B in International Share Sale, Stock Jumps 16% (CoinDesk): Metaplanet is selling the shares at 553 yen each, with NAKA committing to buy $30 million worth. Poland Says It Shot Down Russian Drones That Entered Its Airspace (The New York Times): Poland’s military said Russian drones crossed its airspace during strikes on Ukraine, prompting Poland and NATO air forces to deploy warplanes and close skies over Warsaw.