Blockchain Enters “Trough of Disillusionment” According to Gartner

Gartner, Inc., a research and advisory firm specializing in the financial and IT industries, recently published a report that asserts blockchain has entered the “trough of disillusionment” with regards to the technology’s lifecycle of hype and adoption.

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Blockchain Enters “Trough of Disillusionment” According to Gartner “Hype Cycle”

In the company’s most recent “Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies” report, Gartner has positioned “blockchain” as having just entered the “trough of disillusionment,” according to the company’s “hype cycle” metric.

According to Gartner, the ‘trough of disillusionment’ is the third phase of a technology’s “life cycle” – comprising the period during which “Interest wanes as experiments and implementations fail to deliver. Producers of the technology shake out or fail. Investments continue only if the surviving providers improve their products to the satisfaction of early adopters.”

Gartner Estimates that Blockchain Will Reach “Maturity” Within 10 Years

Gartner’s hype cycle metric asserts that a technology must pass through the phases of “innovation trigger” an “peak of inflated expectations” before entering the trough of disillusionment, from which it will then enter the “slope of enlightenment” before reaching its “plateau of productivity.” Despite the company’s appraisal of the “blockchain” industry’s adoption, Gartner describes the application of blockchain in data security as comprising a new industry that is roughly halfway through its first cycle of adoption.

“Blockchain […] platforms have crossed the peak by now, and we believe that they will reach maturity in the next five to 10 years, with digital twins and knowledge graphs on their heels,” said Mike Walker, research vice president at Gartner.

Earlier this month, a survey conducted by Deloitte found that 44% of “blockchain-savvy” U.S. executives believe that “blockchain is overhyped.” Of all participants, including executives from Canada, Mexico, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, China, and the United States, 39% indicated that they believe the technology is overhyped.

Do you agree with Gartner’s assessments of the blockchain industry? Share your thoughts in the comments section below!

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