Bitcoin Fails to Hold $116K as OGs Rotate Into Ether: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The crypto market has stalled since Saturday, with bitcoin (BTC) once again failing to keep gains above $116,000 alongside continued selling by wallets of early adopters, or OGs.

According to blockchain analyst Lookonchain, on Sunday an eight-year BTC holder moved 1,176 BTC worth over $136 million to Hyperliquid and started dumping. This holder is known to have exchanged 35,991 BTC for 886,731 ETH in recent months.

Other long-term holders have also been liquidating coins in recent months as the market continues to adjust to a six-figure price as the new normal for BTC.

But the latest selling is not just limited to long-term holders. On-chain data tracked by Glassnode showed that wallets of all sizes are back to distributing coins.

In ether's case, whale wallets continue to scale exposure, suggesting ether outperformance relative to bitcoin. The ether-bitcoin ratio on Binance, however, fell for a third consecutive day, unable to capitalize on the descending trendline breakout confirmed on Friday.

Memecoins, the recent outperformers, have also come under pressure, with top tokens, DOGE and SHIB, losing 10% and 6%, respectively, over the past 24 hours.

Solana's native token SOL traded over 2% lower at $234 despite key industry participants taking steps to accelerate the adoption of Solana-native decentralized finance (DeFi).

Kyle Samani, chairman of Nasdaq-listed Solana treasury company Forward Industries, said on X that the company plans to deploy funds into the Solana-based DeFi protocols. Last week, Forward raised $1.65 billion in a private placement led by Multicoin Capital, Galaxy Digital and Jump Crypto.

Samani was responding to an idea raised by a crypto trader, Ansem, who called for corporate treasury funds to invest in Solana-based DeFi to boost the network's DeFi appeal relative to industry giant Ethereum.

In traditional markets, investor positioning in the S&P 500 looked totally biased bullish. "Sentiment is at extremes. Careful out there," pseudonymous observer The Short Bear said on X. Stay alert!

What to Watch

CryptoNone scheduled.MacroNone scheduled.Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)None scheduled.

Token Events

Governance votes & callsCurve DAO is voting to update donation-enabled Twocrypto contracts, refining donation vesting so unlocked portions persist after burns. Voting ends Sept. 16.UnlocksSept. 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 5.98% of its circulating supply worth $17.09 million.Sept. 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 1.18% of its circulating supply worth $18.06 million.Token LaunchesSept. 15: OpenLedger (OPENLEDGER) to be listed on Crypto.com.

Conferences

Day 4 of 4: ETHTokyo 2025Day 1 of 7: Budapest Blockchain Week 2025 Sept. 15: TGE Summit 2025 (New York)

Token Talk

By Oliver Knight

Monero’s blockchain suffered its deepest-ever reorg on Monday, rolling back 18 blocks. A blockchain reorganization, or reorg, happens when nodes abandon part of the existing chain to follow a longer one with more proof-of-work. The shift occurs during a temporary fork, when two versions of the chain compete.Monero's XMR token remained unperturbed during the porcess; rallying by 5% despite the attack by Qubic, a layer-1 AI-focused blockchain and mining pool that attempted to take over the Monero blockchain by amassing 51% of the mining power last month.The event rewrote roughly 36 minutes of transaction history and invalidated about 118 confirmed transactions, prompting concerns about the security of the network.Crypto podcaster xenu claimed that Qubic's reorg was an attempt to "stop the bleeding" of XMR's price after it tumbled from $344 to $235 during the initial 51% attack in August.XMR currently trades at $304 having brushed aside negative sentiment with daily trading volume rising by 78% to $136 million.

Derivatives Positioning

by Omkar Godbole

The top 25 coins have experienced a decline in futures open interest (OI) over the past 24 hours, with memecoins, such as DOGE, PEPE and FARTCOIN, registering double-digit capital outflows. This contrasts with the pre-Fed bounce being seen in most tokens.BTC's global futures OI tally has pulled back to 720K BTC from the near-record high of 744K BTC last week. Total market-wide OI has pulled back to $90 billion from $95 billion over the weekend.ETH's tally grew to over 14 million ether from roughly 13.2 million ether early this month, indicating renewed capital inflows. However, this does not necessarily indicate bullish positioning, as the OI-normalized cumulative volume delta (CVD) for ETH has been negative for the past 24 hours. That's a sign of net selling pressure.Most major tokens have seen a negative CVD for the past 24 hours.Activity in the CME-listed futures looks to be picking up the pace, with OI bouncing to 141.69K BTC from the multimonth low of 133.25K BTC early this week. The annualized rate on a three-month basis remains below 10%, extending the consolidation. ETH's CME OI remains below 2 million ether.On Deribit, put bias in BTC and ETH has eased significantly across all tenors as markets anticipate Fed rate cuts in the coming months. The implied volatility term structure remains in contango, with December expiry expected to be more volatile.

Market Movements

BTC is down 1.1% from 4 p.m. ET Friday at $114,933.52 (24hrs: -1%)ETH is down 3.1% at $4,528.04 (24hrs: -3.22%)CoinDesk 20 is down 2.73% at 4,245.39 (24hrs: -3.35%)Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 2 bps at 2.82%BTC funding rate is at 0.0081% (8.829% annualized) on BinanceDXY is unchanged at 97.48Gold futures are down 0.29% at $3,675.80Silver futures are down 0.56% at $42.59Nikkei 225 closed up 0.89% at 44,768.12Hang Seng closed up 0.22% at 26,446.56FTSE is down 0.1% at 9,273.57Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.6% at 5,423.13DJIA closed on Friday down 0.59% at 45,834.22S&P 500 closed unchanged at 6,584.29Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.44% at 22,141.10S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.42% at 29,283.82S&P 40 Latin America closed unchanged at 2,857.80U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is unchanged at 4.059%E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 6,594.50E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 24,098.00E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.22% at 45,957.00

Bitcoin Stats

BTC Dominance: 58.11% (0.57%)Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03938 (-1.38%)Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,025 EH/sHashprice (spot): $53.81Total Fees: 3.13 BTC / $362,347CME Futures Open Interest: 141,690 BTCBTC priced in gold: 31.5 ozBTC vs gold market cap: 8.90%

Technical Analysis

DOGE has dropped from 30.7 cents to 26 cents, penetrating the bullish trendline from Sept. 6 lows. The breakdown suggests renewed seller momentum. Prices have also found acceptance below the Ichimoku cloud. Crossovers below the cloud are said to represent a bearish shift in trend.

Crypto Equities

Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Friday at $323.04 (-0.28%), -0.34% at $321.95 in pre-marketCircle (CRCL): closed at $125.32 (-6.27%), +1.81% at $127.59Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $29.70 (+2.88%), -0.47% at $29.56Bullish (BLSH): closed at $51.84 (-3.98%), +1.72% at $52.73MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $16.31 (+3.82%), -0.67% at $16.20Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $15.89 (+1.53%), -0.44% at $15.82Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $15.86 (+1.99%), -0.38% at $15.80CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.35 (+1.47%), unchanged in pre-marketCoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $37.32 (+4.63%)Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $28.36 (-1.73%), unchanged in pre-market

Crypto Treasury Companies

Strategy (MSTR): closed at $331.44 (+1.66%), -0.53% at $329.68Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $29.19 (+2.28%)SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $17.7 (+8.19%), -2.26% at $17.30Upexi (UPXI): closed at $6.76 (+18.93%), +1.55% at $6.86 Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $3.07 (+10.43%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

Daily net flow: $642.4 millionCumulative net flows: $56.79 billionTotal BTC holdings ~ 1.31 million

Spot ETH ETFs

Daily net flow: $405.5 millionCumulative net flows: $13.38 billionTotal ETH holdings ~ 6.48 million

Source: Farside Investors

While You Were Sleeping

What's Next for Bitcoin and Ether as Downside Fears Ease Ahead of Fed Rate Cut? (CoinDesk): Amberdata’s Greg Magadini says a routine quarter-point cut could mean gradual gains, while a half-point move might trigger an explosive rally in BTC, ETH, SOL and gold.Bank of England’s Proposed Stablecoin Ownership Limits Are Unworkable, Say Crypto Groups (CoinDesk): Executives say the U.K.’s proposed caps could be impossible to enforce and risk pushing innovation abroad, while U.S. and EU rules set standards without limiting holdings.LSE Group Starts Blockchain Platform for Access by Private Funds (Bloomberg): LSEG’s Digital Markets Infrastructure, built to boost efficiency, was used in a MembersCap fundraising for MCM Fund 1 with crypto exchange Archax serving the role of nominee.Trump Administration Claims Vast Powers as It Races to Fire Fed Governor Before Meeting (The New York Times): In Sunday’s filing to a federal appeals court, Justice Department lawyers argued Trump’s authority to oust Fed governor Lisa Cook was both “unreviewable” and “reasonable.”BOE Expected to Leave Key Rate on Hold, but Slow Quantitative Tightening (The Wall Street Journal): Signs of internal resistance have cast doubt on near-term rate cuts, with four MPC members opposing the last move and BoE Governor Andrew Bailey warning inflation pressures complicate policy choices.